DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#167 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Abyssal#129 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
46%38%
Rooster · 9 mapsedge Rooster +8%Abyssal · 12 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
55%77%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Abyssal +22%Abyssal · 9 maps
Dust2Rooster ban
43%60%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +17%Abyssal · 11 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
40%45%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge Abyssal +5%Abyssal · 7 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
57%40%
Rooster · 10 mapsedge Rooster +17%Abyssal · 1 map
CacheRooster pick
73%57%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Rooster +16%Abyssal · 3 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%60%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Abyssal · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
3. PickRooster take Cache
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
6. BanRooster remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (46% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed15:19
Rooster 56%Abyssal 44%
The model gave 56% on Rooster — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Rooster 29%Abyssal 71%
The model gave 71% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Rooster.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Rooster 44%Abyssal 56%
The model gave 56% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 51%
Series resultRooster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3