DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Finishers#192 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisRooster pick
63%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +13%Finishers · 0 maps
Dust2Finishers ban
50%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Finishers · 0 maps
InfernoRooster ban
50%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Finishers · 0 maps
MirageFinishers ban
63%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +13%Finishers · 0 maps
NukeRooster ban
38%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Finishers +12%Finishers · 0 maps
OverpassFinishers pick
33%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Finishers +17%Finishers · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Nuke
2. BanFinishers remove Mirage
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickFinishers take Overpass
5. BanFinishers remove Dust2
6. BanRooster remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Rooster 47%Finishers 53%
The model gave 53% on Finishers — the map was taken by Rooster.
Anubisprediction correct13:0
Rooster 65%Finishers 35%
The model gave 65% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 67%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2