ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFruju pick
50%33%
Rooster · 8 mapsedge Rooster +17%Fruju · 2 maps
AnubisRooster pick
58%50%
Rooster · 8 mapsedge Rooster +8%Fruju · 0 maps
NukeRooster ban
36%50%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Fruju +14%Fruju · 0 maps
MirageFruju ban
44%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Fruju +6%Fruju · 0 maps
Dust2Rooster ban
43%40%
Rooster · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Fruju · 1 map
CacheFruju ban
67%40%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +27%Fruju · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Dust2
2. BanFruju remove Cache
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickFruju take Inferno
5. BanFruju remove Mirage
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Rooster 50%Fruju 50%
The model gave 50% on Rooster — the map was taken by Fruju.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 65%
Series resultFruju 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1