DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FURYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisRooster pick
67%40%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +27%FURY · 1 map
InfernoRooster ban
50%60%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge FURY +10%FURY · 1 map
MirageRooster ban
63%60%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even +3%FURY · 1 map
Dust2FURY ban
63%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +13%FURY · 0 maps
NukeFURY ban
38%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge FURY +12%FURY · 0 maps
OverpassFURY pick
40%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge FURY +10%FURY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Inferno
2. BanFURY remove Nuke
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickFURY take Overpass
5. BanFURY remove Dust2
6. BanRooster remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Rooster 50%FURY 50%
The model gave 50% on FURY — the map was taken by Rooster.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Rooster 53%FURY 47%
The model gave 53% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 57%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2