ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +6%Ground Zero · 14 maps
AnubisRooster pick
73%50%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Rooster +23%Ground Zero · 8 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
38%79%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Ground Zero +41%Ground Zero · 10 maps
MirageRooster ban
55%60%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +5%Ground Zero · 6 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
50%57%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%57%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
CacheGround Zero ban
60%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanGround Zero remove Cache
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
6. BanRooster remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
Rooster 75%Ground Zero 25%
The model gave 75% on Rooster — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct15:19
Rooster 13%Ground Zero 87%
The model gave 87% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 66%
Series resultGround Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2