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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rooster ban
43%42%
Rooster · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Ground Zero · 15 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
40%73%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge Ground Zero +33%Ground Zero · 11 maps
AnubisRooster pick
55%54%
Rooster · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Ground Zero · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%64%
Rooster · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +9%Ground Zero · 7 maps
MirageGround Zero ban
44%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Ground Zero +6%Ground Zero · 2 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%50%
Rooster · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 4 maps
CacheGround Zero ban
67%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +17%Ground Zero · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanGround Zero remove Cache
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Mirage
6. BanRooster remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (55% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Rooster 54%Ground Zero 46%
The model gave 54% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Rooster 18%Ground Zero 82%
The model gave 82% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Rooster 41%Ground Zero 59%
The model gave 59% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 64%
Series resultGround Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3