DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mindfreak#213 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +17%Mindfreak · 2 maps
NukeRooster ban
33%60%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Mindfreak +27%Mindfreak · 1 map
Dust2Rooster pick
56%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +6%Mindfreak · 0 maps
MirageMindfreak ban
63%40%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +23%Mindfreak · 1 map
AnubisMindfreak ban
63%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +13%Mindfreak · 0 maps
OverpassMindfreak pick
29%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge Mindfreak +21%Mindfreak · 0 maps
DefaultRooster ban
33%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Mindfreak +17%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Nuke
2. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
3. PickRooster take Dust2
4. PickMindfreak take Overpass
5. BanMindfreak remove Mirage
6. BanRooster remove Default
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Rooster 23%Mindfreak 77%
The model gave 77% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Infernoprediction missed14:16
Rooster 69%Mindfreak 31%
The model gave 69% on Rooster — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 65%
Series resultMindfreak 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2