DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
67%58%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +9%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 maps
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
71%69%
Rooster · 3 mapsnearly even +2%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 9 maps
Dust2Rooster pick
56%45%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +11%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 maps
NukeRooster ban
38%56%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +18%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
63%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsedge Rooster +13%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
29%40%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +11%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
AncientRooster ban
50%50%
Rooster · 0 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickRooster take Dust2
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
Rooster 56%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 44%
The model gave 56% on Rooster — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Nukeprediction correct0:13
Rooster 30%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 70%
The model gave 70% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 68%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2