ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOLDBOYS PL pick
50%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
50%33%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +17%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
InfernoOLDBOYS PL ban
50%50%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
AnubisROUNDS ban
50%60%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
DefaultROUNDS pick
50%60%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
NukeOLDBOYS PL ban
60%50%
ROUNDS · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Inferno
3. PickROUNDS take Default
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Ancient
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Nuke
6. BanROUNDS remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
ROUNDS 57%OLDBOYS PL 43%
The model gave 57% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
ROUNDS 53%OLDBOYS PL 47%
The model gave 53% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 64%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2