ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LP#122 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RTT100 pick
40%40%
RTT100 · 1 mapnearly even +0%LP · 1 map
DefaultRTT100 ban
40%50%
RTT100 · 1 mapedge LP +10%LP · 0 maps
NukeLP ban
50%40%
RTT100 · 0 mapsedge RTT100 +10%LP · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRTT100 remove Default
2. BanLP remove Nuke
3. PickRTT100 take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
RTT100 53%LP 47%
The model gave 53% on RTT100 — the map was taken by LP.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
RTT100 47%LP 53%
The model gave 53% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 75%
Series resultLP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2