1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRune Eaters pick
43%50%
Rune Eaters · 10 mapsedge DNK +7%DNK · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
46%50%
Rune Eaters · 9 mapsnearly even -4%DNK · 0 maps
Dust2DNK ban
60%50%
Rune Eaters · 6 mapsedge Rune Eaters +10%DNK · 0 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
43%50%
Rune Eaters · 3 mapsedge DNK +7%DNK · 0 maps
DefaultDNK ban
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DNK · 0 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
33%50%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsedge DNK +17%DNK · 0 maps
NukeDNK pick
40%50%
Rune Eaters · 1 mapedge DNK +10%DNK · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
2. BanDNK remove Dust2
3. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
4. PickDNK take Nuke
5. BanDNK remove Default
6. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
Rune Eaters 40%DNK 60%
The model gave 60% on DNK — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
Rune Eaters 46%DNK 54%
The model gave 54% on DNK — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2