European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Young Ninjas#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2RUSTEC pick
40%36%
RUSTEC · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Young Ninjas · 10 maps
MirageYoung Ninjas ban
63%33%
RUSTEC · 4 mapsedge RUSTEC +30%Young Ninjas · 5 maps
NukeYoung Ninjas pick
50%73%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsedge Young Ninjas +23%Young Ninjas · 7 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
40%55%
RUSTEC · 1 mapedge Young Ninjas +15%Young Ninjas · 7 maps
AncientRUSTEC ban
50%60%
RUSTEC · 0 mapsedge Young Ninjas +10%Young Ninjas · 6 maps
OverpassYoung Ninjas ban
50%63%
RUSTEC · 2 mapsedge Young Ninjas +13%Young Ninjas · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
RUSTEC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Young Ninjas · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
2. BanYoung Ninjas remove Mirage
3. PickRUSTEC take Dust2
4. PickYoung Ninjas take Nuke
5. BanYoung Ninjas remove Overpass
6. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
RUSTEC 58%Young Ninjas 42%
The model gave 58% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
RUSTEC 25%Young Ninjas 75%
The model gave 75% on Young Ninjas — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Model check result
Model favoriteRUSTEC · 56%
Series resultYoung Ninjas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2