ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ryvex#181 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
57%67%
Ryvex · 3 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 26 maps
AncientRyvex pick
64%67%
Ryvex · 7 mapsnearly even -3%mellren · 17 maps
Nukemellren ban
30%19%
Ryvex · 6 mapsedge Ryvex +11%mellren · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%58%
Ryvex · 1 mapnearly even +2%mellren · 15 maps
Dust2mellren ban
33%57%
Ryvex · 5 mapsedge mellren +24%mellren · 10 maps
AnubisRyvex ban
50%73%
Ryvex · 0 mapsedge mellren +23%mellren · 7 maps
DefaultRyvex ban
50%50%
Ryvex · 0 mapsnearly even +0%mellren · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRyvex remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickRyvex take Ancient
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Dust2
6. BanRyvex remove Default
DeciderInferno (60% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Ryvex 50%mellren 50%
The model gave 50% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Ryvex 37%mellren 63%
The model gave 63% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 61%
Series resultmellren 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2