EPIC49 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ryvex#206 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Privateer#207 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRyvex pick
60%24%
Ryvex · 11 mapsedge Ryvex +36%Privateer · 13 maps
NukePrivateer pick
36%30%
Ryvex · 7 mapsedge Ryvex +6%Privateer · 16 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
38%30%
Ryvex · 9 mapsedge Ryvex +8%Privateer · 6 maps
MiragePrivateer ban
40%33%
Ryvex · 6 mapsedge Ryvex +7%Privateer · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%27%
Ryvex · 1 mapedge Ryvex +13%Privateer · 7 maps
CacheRyvex ban
33%67%
Ryvex · 5 mapsedge Privateer +34%Privateer · 2 maps
InfernoRyvex ban
60%50%
Ryvex · 1 mapedge Ryvex +10%Privateer · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRyvex remove Cache
2. BanPrivateer remove Mirage
3. PickRyvex take Ancient
4. PickPrivateer take Nuke
5. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
6. BanRyvex remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (40% / 27%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Ryvex 54%Privateer 46%
The model gave 54% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Privateer.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Ryvex 60%Privateer 40%
The model gave 60% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Ryvex 60%Privateer 40%
The model gave 60% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Model check result
Model favoriteRyvex · 59%
Series resultRyvex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3