Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
40%50%
SadFamous · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +10%Eternal Fire · 10 maps
AncientSadFamous ban
50%62%
SadFamous · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +12%Eternal Fire · 9 maps
MirageSadFamous ban
50%58%
SadFamous · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
AnubisSadFamous pick
50%50%
SadFamous · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
40%50%
SadFamous · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +10%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%57%
SadFamous · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
OverpassEternal Fire ban
50%57%
SadFamous · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSadFamous remove Ancient
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickSadFamous take Anubis
4. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
5. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
6. BanSadFamous remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
SadFamous 50%Eternal Fire 50%
The model gave 50% on SadFamous — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 76%
Series resultEternal Fire 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1