ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
mellren#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
45%69%
Saint Sinners · 7 mapsedge mellren +24%mellren · 28 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
50%70%
Saint Sinners · 6 mapsedge mellren +20%mellren · 19 maps
Nukemellren ban
40%19%
Saint Sinners · 6 mapsedge Saint Sinners +21%mellren · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%58%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge mellren +25%mellren · 15 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
67%57%
Saint Sinners · 5 mapsedge Saint Sinners +10%mellren · 10 maps
Defaultmellren ban
45%50%
Saint Sinners · 7 mapsedge mellren +5%mellren · 4 maps
AnubisSaint Sinners ban
50%73%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge mellren +23%mellren · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Default
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (33% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Saint Sinners 25%mellren 75%
The model gave 75% on mellren — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Saint Sinners 63%mellren 37%
The model gave 63% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 71%
Series resultSaint Sinners 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2