Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Teletubisie#261 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
40%33%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge Saint Sinners +7%Teletubisie · 2 maps
MirageTeletubisie pick
33%60%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge Teletubisie +27%Teletubisie · 1 map
AnubisTeletubisie ban
50%33%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge Saint Sinners +17%Teletubisie · 2 maps
DefaultTeletubisie ban
50%50%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Teletubisie · 0 maps
NukeSaint Sinners pick
50%50%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Teletubisie · 0 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
40%50%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge Teletubisie +10%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Dust2Saint Sinners ban
50%60%
Saint Sinners · 0 mapsedge Teletubisie +10%Teletubisie · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
2. BanTeletubisie remove Anubis
3. PickSaint Sinners take Nuke
4. PickTeletubisie take Mirage
5. BanTeletubisie remove Default
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Dust2
DeciderCache (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Saint Sinners 47%Teletubisie 53%
The model gave 53% on Teletubisie — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Saint Sinners 53%Teletubisie 47%
The model gave 53% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Model check result
Model favoriteSaint Sinners · 59%
Series resultTeletubisie 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2