Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#40 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Young Blud#212 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSangal pick
68%50%
Sangal · 15 mapsedge Sangal +18%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
NukeAurora Young Blud ban
74%50%
Sangal · 15 mapsedge Sangal +24%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
Dust2Aurora Young Blud pick
44%50%
Sangal · 12 mapsedge Aurora Young Blud +6%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
AnubisAurora Young Blud ban
60%50%
Sangal · 11 mapsedge Sangal +10%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
MirageSangal ban
53%50%
Sangal · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
AncientSangal ban
45%50%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Aurora Young Blud +5%Aurora Young Blud · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Ancient
2. BanAurora Young Blud remove Nuke
3. PickSangal take Cache
4. PickAurora Young Blud take Dust2
5. BanAurora Young Blud remove Anubis
6. BanSangal remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Sangal 42%Aurora Young Blud 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Young Blud — the map was taken by Sangal.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Sangal 76%Aurora Young Blud 24%
The model gave 76% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 66%
Series resultSangal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2