Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 16:13series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 16:13
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 13:16The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
62%38%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge Sangal +24%Famalicão · 4 maps
AncientSangal ban
56%36%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge Sangal +20%Famalicão · 7 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
36%56%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Famalicão +20%Famalicão · 5 maps
MirageFamalicão ban
50%60%
Sangal · 8 mapsedge Famalicão +10%Famalicão · 1 map
NukeFamalicão ban
75%50%
Sangal · 8 mapsedge Sangal +25%Famalicão · 0 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
67%33%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge Sangal +34%Famalicão · 2 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%56%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +6%Famalicão · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. BanSangal remove Dust2
4. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanFamalicão remove Mirage
DeciderCache (62% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
Sangal 73%Famalicão 27%
The model gave 73% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 75%
Series resultSangal 16:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1