Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
54%41%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge Sangal +13%G2 Ares · 28 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
46%37%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge Sangal +9%G2 Ares · 23 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%61%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%G2 Ares · 32 maps
AncientG2 Ares pick
56%54%
Sangal · 5 mapsnearly even +2%G2 Ares · 22 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
60%50%
Sangal · 11 mapsedge Sangal +10%G2 Ares · 16 maps
AnubisSangal pick
64%38%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Sangal +26%G2 Ares · 9 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
76%50%
Sangal · 13 mapsedge Sangal +26%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Inferno
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickSangal take Anubis
4. PickG2 Ares take Ancient
5. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
6. BanSangal remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (54% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct16:13
Sangal 76%G2 Ares 24%
The model gave 76% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Sangal 49%G2 Ares 51%
The model gave 51% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
Sangal 60%G2 Ares 40%
The model gave 60% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 71%
Series resultSangal 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3