Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
46%42%
Sangal · 9 mapsnearly even +4%NAVI Junior · 22 maps
MirageNAVI Junior pick
54%69%
Sangal · 9 mapsedge NAVI Junior +15%NAVI Junior · 22 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%67%
Sangal · 8 mapsnearly even +0%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
NukeSangal pick
78%36%
Sangal · 14 mapsedge Sangal +42%NAVI Junior · 10 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
65%30%
Sangal · 13 mapsedge Sangal +35%NAVI Junior · 6 maps
AncientSangal ban
45%27%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge Sangal +18%NAVI Junior · 11 maps
DefaultSangal ban
50%57%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Ancient
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
3. PickSangal take Nuke
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
6. BanSangal remove Default
DeciderAnubis (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
Sangal 83%NAVI Junior 17%
The model gave 83% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Sangal 32%NAVI Junior 68%
The model gave 68% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Sangal 50%NAVI Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Sangal — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 63%
Series resultNAVI Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3