Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9INE#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
53%55%
Sashi · 15 mapsnearly even -2%9INE · 7 maps
CacheSashi pick
61%60%
Sashi · 14 mapsnearly even +1%9INE · 6 maps
Dust29INE ban
38%38%
Sashi · 12 mapsnearly even +0%9INE · 4 maps
Ancient9INE pick
45%60%
Sashi · 7 mapsedge 9INE +15%9INE · 6 maps
AnubisSashi ban
63%50%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +13%9INE · 4 maps
Inferno9INE ban
64%60%
Sashi · 7 mapsnearly even +4%9INE · 1 map
MirageSashi ban
40%56%
Sashi · 1 mapedge 9INE +16%9INE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. Ban9INE remove Inferno
3. PickSashi take Cache
4. Pick9INE take Ancient
5. Ban9INE remove Dust2
6. BanSashi remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (53% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Sashi 60%9INE 40%
The model gave 60% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
Sashi 51%9INE 49%
The model gave 51% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 62%
Series resultSashi 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2