NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#39 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
50%60%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
InfernoSashi pick
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%60%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Nukeex-RUBY ban
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Overpassex-RUBY ban
50%40%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. Banex-RUBY remove Nuke
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
5. Banex-RUBY remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Sashi 37%ex-RUBY 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Sashi 63%ex-RUBY 37%
The model gave 63% on Sashi — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 57%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2