NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
50%71%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +21%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%57%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
NukeSashi ban
60%67%
Sashi · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 2 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
50%33%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +17%ex-RUBY · 2 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
OverpassSashi pick
50%40%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
3. PickSashi take Overpass
4. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
5. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
6. BanSashi remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Sashi 26%ex-RUBY 74%
The model gave 74% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Sashi 46%ex-RUBY 54%
The model gave 54% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 71%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2