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Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
41%64%
Sashi · 13 mapsedge INOX Division +23%INOX Division · 18 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%70%
Sashi · 12 mapsedge INOX Division +14%INOX Division · 19 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
78%68%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +10%INOX Division · 24 maps
AncientSashi ban
42%60%
Sashi · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +18%INOX Division · 16 maps
CacheSashi pick
64%56%
Sashi · 10 mapsedge Sashi +8%INOX Division · 5 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
67%54%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +13%INOX Division · 9 maps
DefaultINOX Division ban
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%INOX Division · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Dust2
2. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
3. PickSashi take Cache
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Default
6. BanSashi remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (56% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Sashi 62%INOX Division 38%
The model gave 62% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Sashi 60%INOX Division 40%
The model gave 60% on Sashi — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Sashi 36%INOX Division 64%
The model gave 64% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 60%
Series resultINOX Division 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3