FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
aimclub#98 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSAW pick
75%70%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +5%aimclub · 6 maps
Anubisaimclub pick
55%60%
SAW · 7 mapsedge aimclub +5%aimclub · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%50%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +17%aimclub · 4 maps
Ancientaimclub ban
44%30%
SAW · 5 mapsedge SAW +14%aimclub · 6 maps
Dust2SAW ban
43%36%
SAW · 3 mapsedge SAW +7%aimclub · 7 maps
MirageSAW ban
60%62%
SAW · 1 mapnearly even -2%aimclub · 9 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
70%50%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +20%aimclub · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. Pickaimclub take Anubis
5. Banaimclub remove Ancient
6. BanSAW remove Dust2
DeciderCache (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
SAW 69%aimclub 31%
The model gave 69% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
SAW 54%aimclub 46%
The model gave 54% on SAW — the map was taken by aimclub.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
SAW 56%aimclub 44%
The model gave 56% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 60%
Series resultSAW 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3