Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
45%39%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +6%EAC · 14 maps
NukeEAC ban
50%38%
SAW · 2 mapsedge SAW +12%EAC · 12 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%46%
SAW · 4 mapsnearly even +4%EAC · 9 maps
InfernoSAW pick
73%25%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +48%EAC · 4 maps
Dust2EAC ban
46%40%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +6%EAC · 1 map
AnubisEAC pick
38%63%
SAW · 4 mapsedge EAC +25%EAC · 4 maps
OverpassSAW ban
50%50%
SAW · 0 mapsnearly even +0%EAC · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Overpass
2. BanEAC remove Dust2
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. PickEAC take Anubis
5. BanEAC remove Nuke
6. BanSAW remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (45% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
SAW 90%EAC 10%
The model gave 90% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Cacheprediction missed19:15
SAW 47%EAC 53%
The model gave 53% on EAC — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 78%
Series resultSAW 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2