Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#151 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
71%60%
SAW · 10 mapsedge SAW +11%HYPERSPIRIT · 16 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
54%35%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +19%HYPERSPIRIT · 13 maps
InfernoSAW pick
75%50%
SAW · 12 mapsedge SAW +25%HYPERSPIRIT · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
54%50%
SAW · 9 mapsnearly even +4%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%46%
SAW · 5 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +13%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%47%
SAW · 0 mapsnearly even +3%HYPERSPIRIT · 11 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
54%50%
SAW · 9 mapsnearly even +4%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
6. BanSAW remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
SAW 60%HYPERSPIRIT 40%
The model gave 60% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Infernoprediction correct13:0
SAW 77%HYPERSPIRIT 23%
The model gave 77% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 69%
Series resultSAW 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2