Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 13:10series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:10
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSAW ban
55%62%
SAW · 7 mapsedge Lazer Cats +7%Lazer Cats · 9 maps
InfernoLazer Cats ban
80%56%
SAW · 11 mapsedge SAW +24%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%70%
SAW · 8 mapsedge Lazer Cats +20%Lazer Cats · 6 maps
NukeLazer Cats ban
64%43%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +21%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
CacheLazer Cats ban
69%50%
SAW · 9 mapsedge SAW +19%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%38%
SAW · 5 mapsedge Lazer Cats +5%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
MirageSAW ban
50%50%
SAW · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanLazer Cats remove Cache
3. BanSAW remove Dust2
4. BanLazer Cats remove Nuke
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanLazer Cats remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
SAW 43%Lazer Cats 57%
The model gave 57% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 65%
Series resultSAW 13:10
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1