LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
57%62%
SAW · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +5%MOUZ NXT · 22 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%24%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +16%MOUZ NXT · 17 maps
CacheSAW ban
57%50%
SAW · 3 mapsedge SAW +7%MOUZ NXT · 14 maps
MirageSAW pick
67%26%
SAW · 2 mapsedge SAW +41%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
AncientSAW ban
45%69%
SAW · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +24%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
44%44%
SAW · 5 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
75%40%
SAW · 8 mapsedge SAW +35%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickSAW take Mirage
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. BanSAW remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (40% / 24%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
SAW 60%MOUZ NXT 40%
The model gave 60% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
SAW 42%MOUZ NXT 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 65%
Series resultSAW 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2