European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WBT ban
45%43%
SAW · 7 mapsnearly even +2%WBT · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%33%
SAW · 5 mapsnearly even +0%WBT · 2 maps
InfernoWBT ban
70%50%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +20%WBT · 0 maps
MirageSAW ban
29%57%
SAW · 3 mapsedge WBT +28%WBT · 3 maps
AnubisSAW pick
43%50%
SAW · 3 mapsedge WBT +7%WBT · 2 maps
NukeSAW ban
33%40%
SAW · 2 mapsedge WBT +7%WBT · 1 map
DefaultWBT pick
50%50%
SAW · 2 mapsnearly even +0%WBT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanWBT remove Inferno
3. PickSAW take Anubis
4. PickWBT take Default
5. BanWBT remove Dust2
6. BanSAW remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (33% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
SAW 53%WBT 47%
The model gave 53% on SAW — the map was taken by WBT.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
SAW 21%WBT 79%
The model gave 79% on WBT — the map was taken by SAW.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
SAW 53%WBT 47%
The model gave 53% on SAW — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 50%
Series resultWBT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3