NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Vexar#141 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
60%44%
SAW Youngsters · 1 mapedge SAW Youngsters +16%Vexar · 5 maps
InfernoSAW Youngsters pick
75%50%
SAW Youngsters · 4 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +25%Vexar · 2 maps
MirageVexar ban
43%33%
SAW Youngsters · 3 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +10%Vexar · 2 maps
DefaultSAW Youngsters ban
50%63%
SAW Youngsters · 0 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 4 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
50%50%
SAW Youngsters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 2 maps
NukeSAW Youngsters ban
40%60%
SAW Youngsters · 1 mapedge Vexar +20%Vexar · 1 map
AnubisVexar ban
60%50%
SAW Youngsters · 1 mapedge SAW Youngsters +10%Vexar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW Youngsters remove Nuke
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. PickSAW Youngsters take Inferno
4. PickVexar take Dust2
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanSAW Youngsters remove Default
DeciderAncient (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
SAW Youngsters 38%Vexar 62%
The model gave 63% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW Youngsters · 64%
Series resultVexar 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1