Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
56%64%
Sharks · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
NukeSharks pick
69%67%
Sharks · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
MirageSharks ban
29%50%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +21%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%44%
Sharks · 2 mapsedge Sharks +6%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%55%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
OverpassEternal Fire ban
29%50%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +21%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
57%50%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Sharks +7%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Dust2
2. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
3. PickSharks take Nuke
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
6. BanSharks remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Sharks 39%Eternal Fire 61%
The model gave 61% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Sharks 56%Eternal Fire 44%
The model gave 56% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 66%
Series resultSharks 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2