BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSharks pick
67%57%
Sharks · 2 mapsedge Sharks +10%FOKUS · 3 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
71%33%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Sharks +38%FOKUS · 2 maps
InfernoFOKUS pick
60%67%
Sharks · 1 mapedge FOKUS +7%FOKUS · 2 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%50%
Sharks · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 2 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
40%60%
Sharks · 1 mapedge FOKUS +20%FOKUS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Dust2
2. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
3. PickSharks take Ancient
4. PickFOKUS take Inferno
5. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Sharks 57%FOKUS 43%
The model gave 57% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Sharks 85%FOKUS 15%
The model gave 85% on Sharks — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Overpassprediction missed11:13
Sharks 50%FOKUS 50%
The model gave 50% on Sharks — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 55%
Series resultFOKUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3