Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSharks pick
73%56%
Sharks · 11 mapsedge Sharks +17%Inner Circle · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%50%
Sharks · 7 mapsedge Sharks +14%Inner Circle · 4 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
44%50%
Sharks · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +6%Inner Circle · 6 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%64%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +14%Inner Circle · 7 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
29%50%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +21%Inner Circle · 4 maps
AnubisSharks ban
43%60%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +17%Inner Circle · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle ban
57%50%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Sharks +7%Inner Circle · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. PickSharks take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle take Mirage
5. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
6. BanSharks remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Sharks 42%Inner Circle 58%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
Sharks 71%Inner Circle 29%
The model gave 71% on Sharks — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Anubisprediction correct16:19
Sharks 33%Inner Circle 67%
The model gave 67% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 64%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3