ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shimmer#241 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientShimmer pick
50%40%
Shimmer · 2 mapsedge Shimmer +10%Elusive · 1 map
Dust2Elusive ban
43%50%
Shimmer · 3 mapsedge Elusive +7%Elusive · 0 maps
InfernoShimmer ban
40%40%
Shimmer · 1 mapnearly even +0%Elusive · 1 map
NukeElusive pick
33%50%
Shimmer · 2 mapsedge Elusive +17%Elusive · 0 maps
MirageElusive ban
60%50%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Shimmer +10%Elusive · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShimmer remove Inferno
2. BanElusive remove Dust2
3. PickShimmer take Ancient
4. PickElusive take Nuke
5. BanElusive remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Shimmer 31%Elusive 69%
The model gave 69% on Elusive — the map was taken by Elusive.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Shimmer 63%Elusive 37%
The model gave 63% on Shimmer — the map was taken by Shimmer.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Shimmer 60%Elusive 40%
The model gave 60% on Shimmer — the map was taken by Elusive.
Model check result
Model favoriteShimmer · 55%
Series resultElusive 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3