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ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#85 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bounty Hunters pick
50%67%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Bounty Hunters · 5 maps
MirageShindeN ban
67%43%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge ShindeN +24%Bounty Hunters · 3 maps
NukeShindeN pick
50%60%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
AncientShindeN ban
50%71%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +21%Bounty Hunters · 3 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%50%
ShindeN · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
OverpassBounty Hunters ban
60%50%
ShindeN · 1 mapedge ShindeN +10%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Ancient
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickShindeN take Nuke
4. PickBounty Hunters take Dust2
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Overpass
6. BanShindeN remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
ShindeN 26%Bounty Hunters 74%
The model gave 74% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
ShindeN 75%Bounty Hunters 25%
The model gave 75% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
ShindeN 40%Bounty Hunters 60%
The model gave 60% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 60%
Series resultBounty Hunters 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3