Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoShindeN pick
63%50%
ShindeN · 12 mapsedge ShindeN +13%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
58%50%
ShindeN · 8 mapsedge ShindeN +8%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
NukeShindeN ban
50%50%
ShindeN · 8 mapsnearly even +0%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
AncientEHISTO BASE ban
64%50%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge ShindeN +14%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
CacheShindeN ban
36%50%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge EHISTO BASE +14%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
MirageEHISTO BASE pick
40%50%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge EHISTO BASE +10%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
OverpassEHISTO BASE ban
67%50%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge ShindeN +17%EHISTO BASE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Cache
2. BanEHISTO BASE remove Overpass
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickEHISTO BASE take Mirage
5. BanEHISTO BASE remove Ancient
6. BanShindeN remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
ShindeN 37%EHISTO BASE 63%
The model gave 63% on EHISTO BASE — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
ShindeN 53%EHISTO BASE 47%
The model gave 53% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 65%
Series resultShindeN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2