ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 pick
53%64%
ShindeN · 13 mapsedge G2 +11%G2 · 10 maps
MirageShindeN ban
31%54%
ShindeN · 12 mapsedge G2 +23%G2 · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%59%
ShindeN · 5 mapsnearly even -3%G2 · 13 maps
Dust2ShindeN pick
64%33%
ShindeN · 10 mapsedge ShindeN +31%G2 · 8 maps
NukeG2 ban
53%50%
ShindeN · 13 mapsnearly even +3%G2 · 0 maps
CacheG2 ban
36%38%
ShindeN · 7 mapsnearly even -2%G2 · 4 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
50%50%
ShindeN · 0 mapsnearly even +0%G2 · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Anubis
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickShindeN take Dust2
4. PickG2 take Inferno
5. BanG2 remove Cache
6. BanShindeN remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (56% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
ShindeN 80%G2 20%
The model gave 80% on ShindeN — the map was taken by G2.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
ShindeN 44%G2 56%
The model gave 56% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 88%
Series resultG2 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2