ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacy#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ShindeN ban
64%57%
ShindeN · 10 mapsedge ShindeN +7%Legacy · 10 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
53%67%
ShindeN · 13 mapsedge Legacy +14%Legacy · 5 maps
MirageLegacy pick
33%64%
ShindeN · 11 mapsedge Legacy +31%Legacy · 7 maps
NukeLegacy ban
56%63%
ShindeN · 12 mapsedge Legacy +7%Legacy · 4 maps
AncientLegacy ban
56%57%
ShindeN · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Legacy · 10 maps
CacheShindeN ban
36%50%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge Legacy +14%Legacy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Cache
2. BanLegacy remove Nuke
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickLegacy take Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Ancient
6. BanShindeN remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
ShindeN 47%Legacy 53%
The model gave 53% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
ShindeN 20%Legacy 80%
The model gave 80% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 91%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2