RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LP#107 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoShindeN pick
67%76%
ShindeN · 5 mapsedge LP +9%LP · 13 maps
Dust2ShindeN ban
50%59%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge LP +9%LP · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%56%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge ShindeN +7%LP · 12 maps
NukeLP pick
40%69%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge LP +29%LP · 9 maps
MirageLP ban
63%54%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge ShindeN +9%LP · 9 maps
OverpassLP ban
75%44%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge ShindeN +31%LP · 5 maps
DefaultShindeN ban
50%67%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge LP +17%LP · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Default
2. BanLP remove Overpass
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickLP take Nuke
5. BanLP remove Mirage
6. BanShindeN remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (63% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
ShindeN 53%LP 47%
The model gave 53% on ShindeN — the map was taken by LP.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
ShindeN 41%LP 59%
The model gave 59% on LP — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
ShindeN 50%LP 50%
The model gave 50% on ShindeN — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 52%
Series resultLP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3