PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#85 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Turma do Pagodeloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
60%58%
ShindeN · 6 mapsnearly even +2%Turma do Pagode · 8 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
57%43%
ShindeN · 10 mapsedge ShindeN +14%Turma do Pagode · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%56%
ShindeN · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
CacheShindeN ban
40%60%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +20%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
44%50%
ShindeN · 5 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +6%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
NukeShindeN ban
45%50%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +5%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
OverpassTurma do Pagode ban
67%50%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge ShindeN +17%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Cache
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Overpass
6. BanShindeN remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
ShindeN 49%Turma do Pagode 51%
The model gave 51% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
ShindeN 58%Turma do Pagode 42%
The model gave 58% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Nukeprediction missed16:14
ShindeN 45%Turma do Pagode 55%
The model gave 55% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 73%
Series resultShindeN 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3