Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
64%60%
ShindeN · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Turma do Pagode · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
58%54%
ShindeN · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Turma do Pagode · 9 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
65%50%
ShindeN · 13 mapsedge ShindeN +15%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
57%40%
ShindeN · 10 mapsedge ShindeN +17%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
42%50%
ShindeN · 8 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +8%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
CacheShindeN ban
36%60%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +24%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
AnubisShindeN ban
50%33%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +17%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Anubis
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
6. BanShindeN remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (58% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
ShindeN 51%Turma do Pagode 49%
The model gave 51% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
ShindeN 69%Turma do Pagode 31%
The model gave 69% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
ShindeN 55%Turma do Pagode 45%
The model gave 55% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 68%
Series resultShindeN 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3