Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINNERS pick
67%57%
SINNERS · 17 mapsedge SINNERS +10%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
Mirageex-RUBY pick
56%75%
SINNERS · 12 mapsedge ex-RUBY +19%ex-RUBY · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%50%
SINNERS · 13 mapsnearly even +3%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
44%46%
SINNERS · 12 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUBY · 9 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
38%45%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
43%50%
SINNERS · 10 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Defaultex-RUBY ban
50%38%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +12%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
2. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
5. Banex-RUBY remove Default
6. BanSINNERS remove Cache
DeciderAncient (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
SINNERS 28%ex-RUBY 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
SINNERS 63%ex-RUBY 37%
The model gave 63% on SINNERS — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 67%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2