PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#44 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
53%42%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge SINNERS +11%Nemiga · 15 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
65%56%
SINNERS · 13 mapsedge SINNERS +9%Nemiga · 12 maps
MirageNemiga pick
60%67%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge Nemiga +7%Nemiga · 8 maps
CacheNemiga ban
47%50%
SINNERS · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Nemiga · 4 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
43%50%
SINNERS · 3 mapsedge Nemiga +7%Nemiga · 8 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%71%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +21%Nemiga · 10 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
45%60%
SINNERS · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +15%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. PickNemiga take Mirage
5. BanNemiga remove Cache
6. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (53% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct17:19
SINNERS 40%Nemiga 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
SINNERS 62%Nemiga 38%
The model gave 62% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
SINNERS 61%Nemiga 39%
The model gave 61% on SINNERS — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 51%
Series resultNemiga 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3