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1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
53%53%
SINNERS · 13 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 maps
MirageSINNERS pick
53%41%
SINNERS · 13 mapsedge SINNERS +12%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
64%33%
SINNERS · 18 mapsedge SINNERS +31%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
38%71%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +33%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 maps
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
44%27%
SINNERS · 12 mapsedge SINNERS +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
43%55%
SINNERS · 10 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +12%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%44%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +6%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
3. PickSINNERS take Mirage
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
6. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (53% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
SINNERS 53%Ninjas in Pyjamas 47%
The model gave 53% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
SINNERS 65%Ninjas in Pyjamas 35%
The model gave 65% on SINNERS — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Infernoprediction correct0:13
SINNERS 38%Ninjas in Pyjamas 62%
The model gave 62% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 54%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3