Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · win 13:5series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 13:5
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINQU ban
50%33%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge SINQU +17%BOJONG · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
SINQU · 1 mapedge BOJONG +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
NukeBOJONG ban
60%50%
SINQU · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Mirage
2. BanBOJONG remove Nuke
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
SINQU 40%BOJONG 60%
The model gave 60% on BOJONG — the map was taken by SINQU.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 61%
Series resultSINQU 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1