FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 1:13series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:13
Famalicão#153 in the world · win 13:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
33%30%
SINQU · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Famalicão · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
33%43%
SINQU · 5 mapsedge Famalicão +10%Famalicão · 3 maps
InfernoSINQU ban
50%50%
SINQU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Famalicão · 4 maps
Dust2SINQU ban
40%63%
SINQU · 1 mapedge Famalicão +23%Famalicão · 4 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
63%50%
SINQU · 4 mapsedge SINQU +13%Famalicão · 0 maps
AnubisSINQU ban
33%40%
SINQU · 2 mapsedge Famalicão +7%Famalicão · 1 map
DefaultFamalicão ban
60%50%
SINQU · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%Famalicão · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Dust2
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. BanSINQU remove Inferno
4. BanFamalicão remove Default
5. BanSINQU remove Anubis
6. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
DeciderCache (33% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
SINQU 54%Famalicão 46%
The model gave 54% on SINQU — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Model check result
Model favoriteFamalicão · 58%
Series resultFamalicão 1:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1