NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SINQU#180 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#124 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
40%45%
SINQU · 1 mapedge Misa +5%Misa · 29 maps
AnubisSINQU ban
40%48%
SINQU · 1 mapedge Misa +8%Misa · 21 map
Cachepossible decider
38%36%
SINQU · 4 mapsnearly even +2%Misa · 18 maps
MirageSINQU ban
50%43%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge SINQU +7%Misa · 17 maps
NukeMisa ban
57%50%
SINQU · 3 mapsedge SINQU +7%Misa · 14 maps
InfernoMisa ban
50%57%
SINQU · 2 mapsedge Misa +7%Misa · 10 maps
DefaultSINQU pick
60%33%
SINQU · 1 mapedge SINQU +27%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Mirage
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickSINQU take Default
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Inferno
6. BanSINQU remove Anubis
DeciderCache (38% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
SINQU 48%Misa 52%
The model gave 52% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
SINQU 60%Misa 40%
The model gave 60% on SINQU — the map was taken by SINQU.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
SINQU 42%Misa 58%
The model gave 58% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 59%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3