ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · win 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINQU ban
50%60%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge Phantom Academy +10%Phantom Academy · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
43%50%
SINQU · 3 mapsedge Phantom Academy +7%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
NukeSINQU pick
57%67%
SINQU · 3 mapsedge Phantom Academy +10%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
AncientPhantom Academy ban
40%43%
SINQU · 1 mapnearly even -3%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
Dust2Phantom Academy pick
50%50%
SINQU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
40%40%
SINQU · 1 mapnearly even +0%Phantom Academy · 1 map
AnubisSINQU ban
50%60%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge Phantom Academy +10%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Mirage
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. PickSINQU take Nuke
4. PickPhantom Academy take Dust2
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Ancient
6. BanSINQU remove Anubis
DeciderCache (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
SINQU 50%Phantom Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on SINQU — the map was taken by SINQU.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 52%
Series resultSINQU 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1