FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 6:13
SAW#61 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
33%67%
SINQU · 5 mapsedge SAW +34%SAW · 5 maps
InfernoSINQU ban
50%75%
SINQU · 2 mapsedge SAW +25%SAW · 8 maps
NukeSAW ban
63%67%
SINQU · 4 mapsnearly even -4%SAW · 5 maps
AncientSAW ban
29%56%
SINQU · 3 mapsedge SAW +27%SAW · 5 maps
AnubisSINQU ban
33%56%
SINQU · 2 mapsedge SAW +23%SAW · 5 maps
Dust2SINQU ban
40%43%
SINQU · 1 mapnearly even -3%SAW · 3 maps
DefaultSAW ban
60%50%
SINQU · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SAW · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Inferno
2. BanSAW remove Default
3. BanSINQU remove Dust2
4. BanSAW remove Ancient
5. BanSINQU remove Anubis
6. BanSAW remove Nuke
DeciderCache (33% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
SINQU 45%SAW 55%
The model gave 55% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 77%
Series resultSAW 6:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1